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NBER Eggheads Finally Proclaim End of Recession

              The NBER‘s Business Cycle Dating Committee, of which I am a member, announced this morning that June 2009 was the trough of the recession that began in December 2007.    It was the...

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A Review of Predictions of the Last Decade

         December 31 is technically the end of the first decade of the 21st century.  It is perhaps an appropriate time to review one’s predictions.    It seems to me that I got some things right over...

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Barack Obama’s Biggest Economic Mistake Has Been…

In the current issue of Foreign Policy, the editors of the FP Survey ask “top experts” for pithy solutions to the world’s economic problems, “twitter style.”  Some of the answers: THE BIGGEST THREAT TO...

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GDP Reattains Pre-Recession Peak

This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate for 2011 GDP.   It showed national output for the first time surpassing the pre-recession peak, which occurred in the last...

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Recap: Obama Recovery, Emerging Markets & 2012 Crash

A recent video interview from Project Syndicate recaps some of my recent op-eds.  It covers the following territory:           The Obama Recovery.    The U.S. economy was in free fall in late 2008,...

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Did Obama Turn Around the Economy?

With November’s election fast approaching, the Republican candidates seeking to challenge President Barack Obama claim that his policies have done nothing to support recovery from the recession that he...

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The Procyclicalists: Fiscal Austerity vs. Stimulus

       The world is in the grip of a debate between fiscal austerity and fiscal stimulus.  Opponents of austerity worry about contractionary effects on the economy.  Opponents of stimulus worry about...

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One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe

  The recent release of a revised set of GDP statistics by Britain’s Office for National Statistics showed that growth had not quite, as previously thought, been negative for two consecutive quarters...

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The Fiscal Stimulus & Market Turnaround: 5-Year Anniversary

Commentators are taking note of the five-year anniversary of the fiscal stimulus that President Obama enacted during his first month in office.   Those who don’t like Obama are still asking “if the...

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Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”?

 Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”? Italians and the world have now been told that their economy slipped back into recession in the first half of 2014.  This characterization is based on the...

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